Security Transitions

How do foreign powers disengage from a conflict? We study this issue by examining the recent, large-scale security transition international troops to local forces in ongoing civil conflict Afghanistan. construct new dataset that combines information on process with declassified outcomes and previously unreleased quarterly survey data of residents’ perceptions security. Our empirical design leverages staggered roll-out transition, employs novel instrumental variables approach estimate impact. find significant, sharp, timely decline insurgent violence initial phase: transfer Afghan forces. is followed significant surge second actual physical withdrawal troops. argue pattern consistent signaling model, which insurgents reduce strategically facilitate military capitalize reduced presence afterward. findings clarify destabilizing consequences one costliest conflicts modern history, yield potentially actionable insights for designing future transitions. (JEL D74, F51, F52, O17)